Guta-Bank and the "Russian Standard" - not the same?

Guta-Bank and the "Russian Standard" - not the same?

It can be assumed that the State which is the principal shareholder and Sberbank, and VTB, it would be only happy associations second largest gosbanka with "Russian Standard". And, as some experts believe, the Russian authorities do not sit idly by.

They are doing everything possible to accelerate the process of concluding the deal and, more importantly, are doing everything possible to ensure that the asset sale was conducted on favourable terms gosbanka. "It seems that the attacks and kidnap FASa to" Russian Standard ", denounced the charges against the bank in violation of the rights of borrowers and Roustam Tariko calls to the prosecutor's office paved the way for the bank willingly went to the talks with VTB about their own sales" -- "BO" said an expert from an international consulting firm.

"It seems to me quite realistic following scenario: Roustam Tariko offered any conditions, he found them unacceptable and refuses, then the attack begins, and for the" Russian Standard "create favourable conditions not too activities. Against this backdrop, negotiations resumed, it should be a new waiver, but for him - the new attack, etc. Given that serves as a buyer VTB, gosbank ie, it can be expected that as a result of "Russian Standard" "prodavyat" - thought Specialist.

It seems that in a certain outcome, most market participants. It could hardly be considered coincidental that the experts, analyzing the situation around the Russian VTB and the "Standard" increasingly recall events of three years ago. Namely tale of how Vneshtorgbank bought hot summer of 2004, one of the largest for the time Russian private financial structures - Guta-Bank. A unit of whether the current situation in the case and "long past days" just the fact that in both cases, the role played VTB buyer? Or between kazusom "Guty" and "kazusom" Russian Standard "much more in common than it may seem at first glance?

"I think that between the current situation around" Russian Standard "and the situation that prevailed in the market in 2004, in anticipation of the" absorption "Guta-Bank, indeed, there are some common characteristics" - Paul believes Samiev ( "Expert RA"). Analyst notes that, and then, and now on the banking market experienced a liquidity crisis. "In many ways this is why VTB succeeded three years ago to commit successfull purchase: it has acquired an asset with a well-developed branch network for funny money" - explains the analyst. Funny, if we compare them with the then coefficients, and even more so funny, in the case of conversion rates, shaping the last year or two when buying banks with a lot of branches, divisions and sales outlets. True, it should be remembered that the Guta-Bank at the time of its sale had a very big problem with liquidity. So long that many experts recognize them incompatible with the continued existence of the bank.

Nevertheless, analysts acknowledge, VTB still lucky with the price at the "Gut": over 86 - per cent share in one of the largest at the time the Russian financial and credit structures gosbank posted only 1 million rubles. Sources in the market argue that VTB lucky with the crisis: the big time, he happened! So much time that many observers have even considered it "man". The crisis, they were convinced, sought to lower the prices of banking assets and create a situation in which gosbank could prirasti per cent private body, marked the official position in the market of banking services.

Russian Standard "X", the experts believe such a scenario will not be able to play. First of all because too great a difference between the brainchild Roustam Tariko and Guta-Bank, said Chairman of JSC "Svedbank" Manchinskis Maris. Guta Bank was corporate bank, it certainly was a good branch network, but it could not match the "Russian Standard" neither on the situation in the market, nor the size of client base - stresses the specialist. -- In addition, in the case of "Guti" VTB literally had to "buy" Eizenshtein Bank, and in the case of "Russian Standard" did not have to do this. Assume that because of a change in the rules of the game for market returns on capital for the bank Roustam Tariko decline slightly, but it is clear that to the collapse of the business is not, and "Russian Standard" still remains one of the most profitable banks in the market. In any case, in the foreseeable future ".

Natalia Orlova of Alfa Bank also believes that the present situation around the Russian Standard "little" recalls the events of three years ago. And not only because of Guta-Bank model in 2004 and Russian Standard Bank "model" in 2007 - a huge amount of distance.

Over the past three years, according to the expert who has changed himself VTB, and the attitude to it by the state. "It is necessary to bear in mind that in 2004 was 100 VTB - state-owned bank interest. He could take any credit at the Central Bank. Now the situation has changed: the bank has become more market-based, it can no longer bezoglyadno use public money to realize their goals and objectives - for example, to purchase new banking assets "- expert stresses. In other words, VTB now have to play by the rules common to all. In the event that talks between him and Roustam Tariko Sales "Russian Standard" will be released at the finish line, will gosbank Saddam for themselves every ruble, observers say. Because alignment with any purchase of one of the leaders of the Russian consumer million rubles it will fail.

Finally, as the sources of stress in the market, and not forget another point. "Three years ago, VTB acquired" Gutu ", but natselivalsya he seems not at all to it, and at Alfa Bank, which was at that time a much more attractive target for acquisition. Or, at the worst end, the Rosbank, which was then just "revenue" OVK branch network and as a result has become too promising from the point of view of retail unit - one of the experts said foreign banks agreed to comment on the situation on the condition of anonymity.

-- In fact, all the then liquidity crisis was created to "fallen" or Alfa-Bank, or Rosbank, and "fallen" is not to get something, and straight into the arms of the VTB. However, the "Alpha" has saved shareholders Rosbank postponed the crisis more or less easily, but "Guti", which was weaker and "Alpha" and Rosbank not resist. " Now, in the words of analyst gosbank aims to "Russian Standard" and for whom no more. Because more attractive, and most importantly, free of retail assets in the market is not.