A side, but the logical effect of global liquidity crisis: Russia may start in escrow boom

A side, but the logical effect of global liquidity crisis: Russia may start in escrow boom

The banking system is developing in full compliance with known since the school laws of physics: if one of the communicating vessels something attrition, the other must necessarily come. Loss of cheap and easy money in the international financial market, banks are automatically pushed to the struggle for deposits. And many credit advertising are increasingly beginning to crowd out new advertising deposits. New Year holidays have given this process a traditional seasonal acceleration.

Contributions to swing

Observers note: since December deposits in Russian banks are at the peak of attractiveness. While in the first half of last year saw directly opposite picture. Until the summer of the largest banking market players gradually reduce interest rates on deposits loan. What is logical: for the first half of 2007, the Russian Central Bank lowered twice bid refinancing and finally recorded it on the level of 10%. Naturally, the interest on deposits also rushed down.

The situation began to change around mid-September, when it became clear that interbank borrowing on the international market went at least a couple of paragraphs, and global plans of Russian banks to securitize the loan portfolios will have a minimum sequester as the maximum - to postpone until better times. And banks in search of money again turned to the depositors. Since the beginning of October, the market began a steady increase in interest on deposits. By New Year averaging market they increased by 1,5-2 item.

Environment for the deposit boom is a relatively positive. First, increased confidence in the safety of Russians savings: in the past year Deposit Insurance Agency raised the level of deposits, which in the case of bankruptcy of the bank insurance payment is made, up to 400 thousand roubles. Secondly, at the beginning of last year, returns on ruble deposits for the first time surpassed the level of inflation. True, the end of the year still spoil the impression: the upsurge in prices raised the annual inflation rate to 11% for the year, that is precisely to the level of rates for ruble deposits. But, in any case, now it is possible to ascertain that the money in banks at least not depreciate.

Rather, the "parity" between inflation and the return on deposits in the short term will remain: experts note that the rates on deposits reached a peak, because pay more than 12% on the rouble and a 9-10% for foreign currency deposits of banks are no longer cost-effective. However, this may not be the exception, especially when it comes to so-called long contribution (for more than 3 years) and irrevocable deposits (deposits, which fizlitso even with a loss per cent condition could not close before the end of the deposit agreement). Such banks can attract money and at higher rates. Act now before irrevocable contribution margins in the Duma, and most likely in the new year, it will be adopted.

Ruble - force

"At the call of" escrow people, in general, responded. According to Ivan Zakharov, the head of the financial portal Pro-Credit.ru if, in 2006 and early 2007, the vast majority (over 95%) of sites asked visitors to the financial conditions of various types of loans, but now at least one in five looks at the page with information on conditions deposits. This is confirmed by statistics: Russians deposits in 2007 increased by about 27%. According to the Central Bank, as of December 1, compared with 4.8 trillion rubles - more than a quarter of the total liabilities of the Russian banking system.

Psychologically a landmark achievement on the deposit market: in the past year, the first time since the reforms of 1991-1992 deposits in rubles were profitable deposits in dollars. The Russians finally convinced that any major savings in dollars to keep cool.

The American currency and both fell against the ruble by about 10%, and given the fact that rates on dollar deposits differ from the ruble at 3-4 item, deposits in the "bucks" definitively lost. But deposits have grown significantly in euros. Many bank managers say that until recently, when they held a fraction of the deposit market, but now they share in the structure of foreign exchange deposits of Russians is growing rapidly. Most likely, this trend will continue in the new year.

Stock exchanges against banks

According to Andrew Bocharova, adviser predpravleniya Bank "Stroykredit" Today deposit interest and banks, and their customers, especially in view of volatility in the stock markets. So it can be expected that during 2008, in the arms of the "deposit" of domestic banks dropped an even larger number of Russians.

However, the question of who whom pereboret - Whale (stock market), or elephant (banking market) remains open. By the end of last year fondoviki, which had previously provided to their customers in times more revenue than bankers, has surrendered its position. Recall that many "blue chips" have brought their holders losses ( "Rosneft", "Lukoil", "Surgutneftegas") or income are much more modest than in previous years ( "Gazprom", "RAO UES of Russia"). And although there are very impressive "breakthroughs" (35-70% went to equities "Rostelekom", MTS, "Tatfneti", "Aeroflot"), generally yield funds bought banking and general management (unit) fell.

Analysts suggest that more than 10% of Russian bought on the basis of last year will be at break even and only 7-8% yield to investors incomes above 20%. The average yield of the units in the Russian PIFah be at the level of 15-18%. This is more than twice as high compared to the year before, and quite comparable to the return on bank deposits. Especially when one considers that the risks mildly.

The positive result of rivalry and fondovikov banks - the emergence on the Russian market of new banking products. In particular, banks are increasingly experimenting with a kind of hybrid of deposits and the units - so-called indexed deposits, or deposits, which yield is pegged to change the value of any assets (stocks, precious metals, etc.) or to the difference exchange rates. At that such deposits yield lower than that of the units, but some kind of guaranteed minimum.

Today indexed deposits offer its customers Citibank, CIT Finance "," My Bank. At the same time, increasingly appear offers investment deposits - deposits, income on one side of which is strictly fixed, and the other depends on the conditions in the stock market.

Bet on gold

Quite unexpected outcome of last year - a return to roots. At all times one of the most conservative and at the same time saving ways was faithful investing in precious metals. It seems that in the near future such banking product can receive new impetus.

More and more banks are introducing into use so-called metal accounts - deposits, which yield is pegged to fluctuations in prices of precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium) in the world market. Clearly, in this case, instead of income and loss can happen, but in recent times metal accounts showed impressive success.

Last year, the price of gold rose by 32%. And in just the past three years - to 101%. Silver for the same three years was the more expensive 156%, platinum - by 85%. Accordingly, it has affected and on the success of metal accounts tied to gold, which last year provided investors in the 26% income.

In the new year, likely so impressive trends continue. "the year 2008 has been described as the year of gold, and this is not an accident - noted Dmitry Balkowski, гендиректор Independent Bureau of mortgage lending. -- In recent days, gold has set a new record price - 900 dollars per troy ounce. Projections of the most optimistic analysts minded - up to 1.1 thousand dollars per ounce. So there is loaded with great prospects ".

The Soviet legacy escrow

Recently issued government regulation that specifies the order compensation payments for the pre-reform (until 1991) deposits in the Savings Bank in 2008.

According to the Ministry of Finance of Russia, for compensatory payments this year will be sent 56 billion roubles in 2009-2010 - about 160 billion rubles.

Recall that the compensation payments Russians have lost money as a result of reforms in 1991, produced in 1996 by age - started with the oldest.

In the new year, will receive compensation Russians were born before 1955, persons with disabilities and their heirs. The majority of compensation paid by denomination.

The tricky point - to compensate for the contribution of the Soviet era, recently agreed and Ukraine. Agency "Regnum" on the matter quoted saying Ukrainian premier Yulia Tymoshenko: "After the collapse of the Union of saving people remained in Moscow, in Russia's Sberbank. But we stick with them Ukrainians. " Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance "in the Russian newspaper" stated that any negotiations in this regard between Moscow and Kiev is not maintained, and recalled that the USSR Sberbank in January 1992 has been eliminated.