What lies in the country's banking sector in 2008?

What lies in the country's banking sector in 2008?

The outgoing year has been difficult for the Russian financial market: the first half was marked influx of capital into Russia and excess liquidity, and the second, due to the mortgage crisis in the United States has felt its deficit. With speedy measures TSB full liquidity crisis was averted. But napryazhenka liquidity, the experts say, will continue for long.

Dear pleasure

The outgoing year has been one of the bankers for the most emotional. He began with euphoria. You bet: the inflow of foreign capital into Russia beat records. In the first half of the volume of foreign investments in the Russian economy grew at 2.6 times to reach 60.3 billion dollars. Banks actively hold funds in foreign markets - in 2008 they will pay about 70 billion dollars. Russian companies have successfully conducted public offering in the domestic and foreign markets. Two major lending institutions using SPO IPO and attracted a total of about 17 billion dollars: VTB - 8 billion dollars, the Savings Bank - 8.8 billion

But the joy was short bankers. Market drowned in excess liquidity. As a result, out of control inflation, which since June 2007 has attracted positive turnover. But the main thing was to come: the crisis caused by non-mortgage loans in the United States, has led to a shortage of liquidity in the Americas and Europe. The money went to western markets, as a result of a number of Russian banks has reduced foreign borrowing program for the year 2007 "and" cut the volume of mortgage lending. For example, in October Moscommertsbank first is suspended for mortgage loans, and then resumed, but with more stringent requirements for borrowers. A Uniastrum Bank stopped issuing loans in foreign currency.

In addition, banks have raised rates on deposits and mortgages on average by 1%. By the end of the year, some of them have started to sell mortgage portfolios larger players - such as VTB. Head of Department operations in the financial markets TSB Sergei Shvetsov points on the back side of the coin: in his view, because of this situation, Russia for the first time since the abolition of exchange controls felt themselves part of the global financial market.

Tablet from crisis

CB had to take swift action on refinancing Russian banks. The increase in deposit rates, issue their own bonds and increasing demands on the fund obligatory reserve - all of these tools, according to Sergei Shvetsova successfully used to absorb excess liquidity, engulfed the market.

It is noteworthy that the plan to tackle the crisis of liquidity Central prepared quickly, and action taken in October helped to stabilize the situation in the domestic market. Luckily, the accumulated resources enabled to do so quickly.

The first time the Central Bank carried out a large-scale refinancing, extending Lombard list. This cleared the banks access to additional support from the Central Bank in the amount of 150 billion roubles. Then, the regulator cut mandatory reserve requirements on retail deposits - in the end vysvobodilos still some 100 billion rubles of bank funds. At the same time, interest rates have been reduced to "currency swap transactions" from 10% to 8%. As a result, in the interbank market at that time there was some stability. Seeking to save itself and the domestic market, the Central Bank has resorted to such means to the end of the year the impact that market participants liked. Thus, zampredpravleniya Absolut Bank Anatoly Maksakov said that through these measures, "the majority of Russian banks is relatively easy to overcome the impact of the global liquidity crisis."

Vasily Fyodorov, Director of Operations in the financial markets Nomos-Bank saw merit in expanding the list of tools that can lay through Eurobonds. "And the further lowering of quality issuers, securities, which may include in the list of Lombard, in my opinion, is not required", - he Banki.ru.

A side effect

Having solved one problem, the regulator collided with another: as a result of actions to stabilize liquidity and significant strengthening of the ruble against the dollar Russian financial authorities have lost control over inflation. In the second half of 2007, the inflation rate Breaks originally projected value of 9%. According to Sergei Shvetsova, by the end of the year expected inflation already at the level of 11-11,5%.

Analysts predict Alfa-Bank in the spring of 2008, the increase in monetary inflation. "The acceleration of inflation - it is inevitable price to be paid Russia for its heterogeneous banking, in which part of the banks have access to liquidity because of their size and status, as part of the compression vulnerable to the market. In the long run, inflation will lead to a decrease in long-term investments, which will make the markets highly speculative, and as a consequence, "leakages" - described in the analytical report Alfa Bank.

What heart Settle

Banking experts say with caution on the prospects for 2008. In their view, the situation in world markets is unlikely to improve in the next six months. For example, leading analyst predicted IR "Financial Bridge" Olga V., the rate of LIBOR "has every chance to stay at a level close to 5.5%." Therefore, the Central Bank of Russia will continue to provide "assistance" to their wards.

May negatively affect economic growth and a decline in the United States - it will "crush" on the economies of the commodity focus. "Since the Central Bank is planning to raise it refinancing, we can expect a downward current rates no earlier than the summer, as necessary to gain information and understanding of the causes of inflation and growth prospects for the stabilization of the situation" - explains Anatoli Maksakov.

However, Russia, a country still raw, has insurance in the form of stable oil prices to ensure the inflow of liquidity. Moreover, the Russian market, while remaining "aborted" in the field of credit, has less risk compared to the more developed markets, the USA and Europe. So there is reason to believe that the present liquidity crisis in Russia continues bypasses.

I do not fear injections…

Another event, the consequences of which the banking sector will be able to feel fully in 2008 - is a requirement of the Central Bank on July 1, 2007 to disclose the effective interest rate (EPS) on loans. We know that not all banks previously held the transparent conditions for retail lending, credit practicing hidden commissions. However, once the regulator is obliged to disclose their "card", the customers of these banks may start mass exodus to competitors, which will be most visible in 2008. However, the pace of growth is unlikely to potrebkreditov impact, says Olga V. of the IC "Financial Bridge", adding that in III quarter of 2006, the amount of such loans, on average, increased by 35% (up to 123.8 billion rubles), compared with the same period last year.